2 posts tagged “amp'd”

Polaris Venture Partners general partner Simeon Simeonov is the latest to suggest that Google is working on a mobile Phone. In his blog, Simeonov divulges that Andy Rubin (who founded Danger and later, Asteroid, which was ultimately sold to Google) is working with a team of about 100 people on a Google phone.   He also sites other Google acquisitions as evidence of a forthcoming Google Phone: mobile applications company, Reqwireless and Skia, who makes a portable graphics engine. 

Simenov's blog is definitely worth a read. It is not the only evidence that a "gPhone" (as I've now taken to calling it) is in the works.  Back in December, UK paper, The Observer, reported that Google was in talks with Orange:

[Google's] plans centre on a branded Google phone, which would probably also carry Orange's logo. The device would not be revolutionary: manufactured by HTC, a Taiwanese firm specialising in smart phones and Personal Data Assistants (PDAs), it might have a screen similar to a video iPod. But it would have built-in Google software which would dramatically improve on the slow and cumbersome experience of surfing the web from a mobile handset.

In the last year (plus), Google has proven that it wants to be a key player in mobile by innovating in the mobile applications marketplace and making key acquisitions (including Dodgeball, which Simeonov didn't mention in his blog).  It is easy to see the business reasons why Google is making an investment in mobile.  The mobile marketplace presents an opportunity for Google to expand its search and advertising empire.  According to Ovum Ltd., mobile advertising will become a $1.26 billion market by 2009 (a big jump from the $45 million market it was in 2005).  With the social media markets exploding and the lines between social media and targeted advertising becoming increasingly blury, I'm particularly interested in seeing what sort of social media featuers the gPhone incorporates. I'd love to see Google put out a mobile phone with built in GPS and suped-up Dodgeball built-in.  If that happens, it would likely shake-up the mobile industry by encouraging innovation and possibly spelling the death of comanies like Helio and Amp'd. 

Even if as the Observer suggests, the gPhone hardware isn't "revolutionary," my hope is that the software will be extraordinary.  Having worked for 18 months as a full-time consultant on Palm Inc.'s Business Development/ Developer Relations team, I can tell you that a phone (hardware) is only as good as the software that runs on it.  Palm's Treo is popular in large part because of the 3rd party software applications available for the device.  Palm isn't the only company that appreciates the value that software brings to mobile hardware.  Motorola and Nokia both have impressive 3rd party alliance programs (MotoDev and Forum Nokia).  If Google puts out a phone, I suspect that it's strategic advantage will be in the availability of as yet, unreleased, proprietary social and productivity-related software.  I hope that that the gPhone comes fully loaded with social features that help advance the mobile ecosystem and that any on-phone advertising is both tasteful and non-invasive.

Yesterday, inCode Telecom Group Inc. announced its "Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2007".  Topping the list as the number one trend for wireless operators in 1007 is Social Networking:

"Social Networking Gets Mobilized. Mobility is added to existing Internet business models, services and behaviors, driving traffic for wireless operators. Teens and twenties accustomed to constant connectivity and habit-forming Web sites, such as MySpace and Facebook, lead a wave of membership in mobile social networks. Location social networking including friend and event finder services gain popularity, even in the professional and over-50 segments. Google, Yahoo and Skype are more compelling for users than wireless brands, which are hard-pressed to compete. As customer appetites for social data and video services spike, wireless operators offer more “all you can eat” pricing for high-end data packages. Social networking applications initially are preloaded on many mobile devices sold and later become downloadable."

On the handset side, inCode predicts that in 2007, "Multi-Function Devices [will] Become Cheaper and More Versatile".  This includes the introduction of video-capable devices to the masses.  They also predict that location-based services (LBS) and GPS will become mainstream.  According to the article:

"GPS is the location technology of choice for the wireless industry. Handset manufacturers continue to push GPS-enabled handsets as the technology evolves from popular in-car satellite navigation systems like TomTom to a broadly accepted feature in wireless phones. With Nokia having launched its first GPS-enabled handsets in early 2007 and bandwidth available to support new multimedia services, location-based service providers build critical mass. Since there are 10 to 20 times more mobile phones sold than any other consumer electronics device, wireless is a huge driver for GPS adoption. That’s great for users and handset vendors, but the benefit to operators isn’t clear."

Another of inCode's predictions is that "Mobile Advertising Breaks Loose:"

"Major brands shift from basic SMS marketing to more sophisticated multimedia advertising. RBC Capital Markets expects mobile marketing revenues to balloon from $45 million in 2005 to $1.5 billion by 2010. With the technological ability to target and measure the effectiveness of mobile advertising, brands are more strategic in their approach. Operators under increasing price pressure set limits on current handset subsidization. Brands take up the slack, subsidize handsets and services for target demographics and take direct ownership of marketing channels. Rich 3G content and video services and accuracy advancements in GPS-based location services deliver further value to brands targeting existing and potential customers in innovative ways."

This prediction, is already starting to come true, with MVNOs like Virgin Mobile USA and Amp'd Mobile planning to offer discounts to customers for viewing advertisements on their mobile phones.  Cingular Wireless, Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel have also said they're going to test the concept of mobile advertising.  And, according to CNET, mobile advertising services company, Millennial Media, which was founded by Paul Palmieri, a former Verizon executive recently received $6.3 million in Series A funding.

inCode is on the money with their predictions for 2007.  Tying together the above predictions for 2007 and thinking about the future, I predict that in 2008, mobile operators will further realize the power of social media - extending beyond simply social networking to all forms of social media.  If all goes as I predict, in 2008, Mobile Operators, MVNOs, OEMs, and ISVs will harness the power of social networking, GPS (LBS), and multi-function handsets and incorporate the power of social media, adding applications and web-based services to handsets that add value to consumers.  Services/ applications like Helio's Buddy Beacon, Dodgeball, etc. will increase.  I predict that large mobile operators and OEMs will begin to pre-load devices with social networking-focused applications that incorporate GPS.  I also believe that mobile advertising will increase and that the value of GPS to mobile operators will be realized in the ability to either charge for LBS social networking services and/or offer interactive mobile advertising via these LBS-enabled social networking applications.

Collaborative and community-based entertainment like YouTube on the go will evolve and continue to be popular.  I also expect that sites that monetize video footage (of, say, news events) that users take on their mobile phones will become increasingly popular....Think sites like: ScoopLive.com, Scoopt.com, and SpyMedia.com.

Search Engine Optimization (SEO) and Social Media Optimisation (SMO) will also play a big role in mobile social networking AND mobile advertising in 2008.  Though, I expect to see real advances in and popularization of this area happening towards the end of the year and into 2009, once mobile GPS and mobile advertising are better established.  I see this happening in several ways:

• When users search for friends, that mobile advertising will be well integrated so that suitable meeting locations and activities will be suggested (e.g. restaurants, coffee shops, stuff to do, sites to see, etc.)
• Based upon users mobile searches, social networking behavior, and text written in the emails they send via mobile phones, mobile LBS and mobile ads will generate new advertising content.

These are my initial thoughts for 2008, and all of them are predicated on inCode's predictions for 2008 coming true.  If you've got any additional predictions for 2008 and beyond, post a comment!