2 posts tagged “bango”

Here are a handful of my predictions for mobile and social media in 2009, moving into 2010… For the record, I’ve left off everything I know will happen in 2009 and limited this list to things I *think* will happen:

• Smartphones and feature phones will continue to converge in iPhone-esque fashion.  
• Mobile Internet will drive usage of smartphones, and with it, more robust experiments with mobile advertising and payments will begin.  
• Mobile advertising and payments will gain some momentum in 2009 but won’t really take off until 2010 and beyond.
• A few thoughts on Android:
• Android will struggle to gain momentum until there is infrastructure to distribute paid apps and an iTunes-esque web or client-based interface for PC & Mac.  
• Ultimately, Android will do well, but it’s going to take longer than many anticipate.
• Mobile and web convergence will continue heating up…
• Mobile back up and “kill pill” services will gain increased momentum, as those who convert to ‘smarter’ phones start storing more important data on their mobile (i.e. contacts, calendar, email, etc.).  Mobile Me, Dashwire and other services will continue to improve, and new players will enter the market, making it easier for users to access data on their phone from the web and reducing the pain associated with a lost or stolen phone.
• Mobile will become more social.  ShoZu, Xumii, Pixelpipe, PixSense, and others social media gateways are already making a play in this market.  But, in 2009, web-based players (ala FriendFeed) will experiment with mobile.  And, we’ll see acquisitions and consolidation in this space.
• Towards the end of the year or early 2010, I think we’ll start seeing converged development platforms that allow developers to create both web and mobile apps/widgets in fewer steps.  In late 2009-2010, mobile OS providers and OEMs will start looking beyond SMS, MMS, and email and incorporate social messaging tools like Twitter and maybe FriendFeed into basic functionality of phones.  And, mobile address books should become more social, allowing you to input your friends’ social networking details into your address book and interact with them via your chosen medium in 1-2 clicks.
• Both web and mobile development platforms will continue to duke it out for developer attention.  Developers will choose the platforms that provide the easiest-to-use, most robust tools and monetization and distribution options.
• I’m hoping Microsoft pulls a rabbit out of a hat… Perhaps, they will finally make computers chewy like cake, but more likely Windows 7 and the next generation of Windows Mobile (which I bet will be called "Windows Mobile 7") will play better together than previous mobile and PC OSes.
• I don't want to predict a rampant mobile virus, but I think it could happen easily, as mobile-web convergence accelerates: A mobile virus has a high probability of emerging in 2009 (though, I won't go as far to say that one will emerge), targetting PIM data (contacts, calendar, etc.).  This type of virus would negatively impact both mobile owners and anyone with an email or mobile number listed on an infected mobile phone. A virus like this would be particularly nasty because it could simultaneously spread through Internet enabled mobile apps, SMS/MMS, and email. So, even if it stopped spreading through mobile apps, it could continue to spread through email and SMS/MMS. The most likely phones that would be impacted are smartphones on open development platforms like Android that give 3rd party developers access to PIM data but don’t closely regulate free app content or distribution.  The likelihood of this happening will decrease if open mobile OS providers (like Google) implement better checks and balances for apps, though doing so may slow innovation in the 3rd party app space.  The other group of users that could be impacted by a mobile virus are those who back-up their PIM data to an un-proven “server in the sky” provider that gets hacked.
• The mobile app store war will heat up… The success of the iTunes app store has blown other smartphone stores out of the water, and bolstered sales of the iPhone. Microsoft, RIM and others will attempt to join or leapfrog the competition.
• Social media and mobile measurement, monitoring, and monetization tools like Radian6, Bango, Mobclix and others (all of which solve pieces of this puzzle) will improve, converge, and become more robust widely used and accessible. 
  
• Social media and mobile marketing will gain validity as measurement tools improve.
  
• More big brands will embrace mobile and social campaigns rather than running away from them.
• Marketers will be able to target content more appropriately to users based on behavior, location, and handset.
• Developers will be able to more effectively understand consumer behavior and increase app traction.
  
• There will be increased consolidation in the social media aggregation space.  Smaller social networks will die or be acquired into larger networks.  Aggregation sites like FriendFeed will become more popular. Turf wars will escalate with larger social networks taking increased action against smaller aggregation networks that violate terms of their API licenses and encroach on their turf (Facebook's lawsuit against Power.com and action against Google Friend connect were just the start).
  
• Facebook will continue to grow in popularity and eventually find a way to properly monetize its 150,000,000 + users.
  
• Twitter will make a big move in 2009.  Someone smart will acquire Twitter (if the offer is good enough) or Twitter will acquire more of the best companies in its developer community and build out a more robust platform with increased consumer appeal.  Twitter will (hopefully) begin to monetize in 2009.
  
• While “Virtual Gifts” will continue to grow in popularity, “Real Gifts” (like Givereal.com) will gain increased momentum in 2009 and really take off in 2010.  Online retailers will make their real products (books, clothes, etc.) easily giftable via social networks.  You’ll be able to send gifts to your friends/acquaintances without knowing their real address.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on these predictions.  If you're not a vox member, please email your comments to me, and I'll re-post. 

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Last year, I wrote a post with predictions for mobile in 2007 and beyond, using inCode's  "Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2007" as a starting point.  We're almost 2 months into 2008, and it's the perfect time to re-visit those predictions to see what came true, and make a few more predictions for 2008 and beyond.

Topping both InCode's and my own predictions for 2007 was the mobilization of social networks.  To date, while social networks aren't nearly as mobile as I'd like, they're taking big strides and moving in the right direction.  In October 2007, Dustin Moskovitz (co-founder of Facebook) spoke at CTIA in San Francisco on the importance of mobilizing social applications and announced Facebook's first mobile application (for RIM).  And, in one of the most exciting things to happen since I started blogging, Dustin Moskovitz read my post expressing disappointment about Facebook's mobile announcement and solicited my input on how to improve Facebook's mobile strategy and WAP site.

In other exciting mobile social networking news in 2007, ShoZu (one of my consulting clients), who makes it easy for users to interact with their favorite social networking sites from their phone, was nominated for a TechCrunch Crunchies Award.  And, in early 2008, ShoZu announced that ShoZu will ship on 50 Million Mobile phones in 2008, the number of users downloading the app from non-pre-installed phones is doubling quarterly, and 100,000 users are registering for ShoZu every month!  With stats like that, it's clear that mobile OEMs and Operators are buying into the mobile social networking proposition, and users are embracing mobile social networking in droves.  Mobile social networking on the whole will continue to increase in popularity in 2008, and mobile accessibility will improve dramatically, as mobile browsers and social media apps get better. 

inCode also predicted that in 2007, "Multi-Function Devices [will] Become Cheaper and More Versatile" - including the introduction of video-capable, GPS-enabled, and LBS-capable devices to the masses.  Video-capable devices are definitely here to stay.  GPS-enabled devices haven't saturated the market, but LBS is taking off.  Google Maps recently incorporated LBS via network triangulation, and while triangulation isn't nearly as accurate as GPS, it's still very useful.  It's great to see carriers like AT&T opening up triangulation to allow mobile internet technologies to leverage LBS.

A year ago, I predicted that in 2008, "large mobile operators and OEMs will begin to pre-load devices with social networking-focused applications that incorporate GPS."  It seems that mobile operators are moving in the right direction, based on several new product announcements at the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona earlier this month.  OEMs like Nokia and Sony Eriksson are jumping on the GPS bandwagon in 2008 with innovative handsets with built-in GPS and designs that rival the iPhone.  Once GPS technology is more readily available on slimmer handsets, the influx of GPS-enabled social applications will come.  By 2009, interacting with friends from your mobile phone and locating people near you so that you can interact with them in real life will get easier thanks to new GPS enabled handsets and apps.

Last year, I also predicted: "collaborative and community-based entertainment like YouTube on the go will evolve and continue to be popular.  I also expect that sites that monetize video footage (of, say, news events) that users take on their mobile phones will become increasingly popular....Think sites like: ScoopLive.com, Scoopt.com, and SpyMedia.com."  So far, I've been right on YouTube, but monetization from video is still a long way off.  Check out the lack of traffic on the above sites according to Alexa!:

Given the current economic downturn in the US, I don't suspect we'll see much movement in the paid-for citizen journalism space until 2009.  And, by that point, there will probably be a whole new set of competitors.  More likely,  I suspect we'll see Video AdSense from Google (just released from beta) and similar video ad platforms make their way towards mobile and start picking up momentum towards the end of the year and into 2009 as mobile advertising revs up.

With an increased amount of mobile content becoming available and more ISVs and websites trying to monetize their mobile efforts through advertising, the discoverability of mobile content needs to improve.  So, I'm sticking with my original prediction from 2007 that later in 2008, mobile search and mobile SEO will gain momentum.  Mobile ads will gain some momentum later this year but won't likely take off until 2009.  By that point, there will be a need to track the effectiveness of mobile ads, and by 2009, I suspect we'll see an increase number of mobile analytics vendors like Bango and Mobilytics emerge.  From there, it's only a matter of time before the heavy hitters in website optimization and testing incorporate mobile website testing and optimization tools into their product suites.

It's an exciting time to be in both mobile and web 2.0, and 2008 and 2009 will be exciting years for both industries as convergence moves further away from a dream and towards a reality.