21 posts tagged “google”

This post has been published on my new blog: Socializemobilize.com

There’s a lot of talk about the value of openness on the web…. Open development platforms, open APIs, open source, OpenSocial, etc.  “Open” is a popular word these days, and depending on who you talk to, “open” can mean any one of many different things. “Open” as it relates to the mobile is no exception…. There’s The Open Handset Alliance, Android, LiMo, multiple derivations of WebKit, etc.  As mobile and web convergence accelerates, so too do conversations about “opening up” the mobile ecosystem. The underlying implication regardless of definition is that “openness” encourages experimentation and innovation, and that’s a good thing…Right?!  Many of the people I talk to (including most developers) advocate for a more open mobile ecosystem, but plenty of people are skeptical of “openness”. Who is right - the advocates or the critics?  The short answer is that they’ve both got valid points.

Mobile developers are sick of developing for so many mobile platforms and device quirks.  Supporting multiple OSes, screen resolutions, button configurations, etc. is painful, and with OSes coming and going (Note the fast turn-around and/or lack of market penetration of mobile technologies like: MOTOMAGX, SymbianUIQ, Palm Folio, ACCESS Linux Platform, and others).  Traditional mobile development is time consuming and expensive, and making your app ubiquitous across all mobile platforms is practically impossible.  From the mobile developer’s perspective, openness might make things easier.

However, there are plenty critics of openness – including Apple, which managed to change the mobile development paradigm, without being truly “open”.  I’d love to see the mobile ecosystem adopt more open standards for development, but I can understand why companies like Apple haven’t done it.  It’s a whole lot easier to differentiate your product with proprietary software (not only on device technologies like Multi-touch but also 3rd party apps) and a unique and robust distribution channel that is difficult for others to reproduce.

More than any other mobile OEM, Apple proves that it’s possible to create a successful developer ecosystem without being open.  It has strict guidelines for development and limits the way iPhone apps can be distributed to a single channel – the iTunes store.  Each iPhone app is reviewed carefully before it’s accepted to the iTunes App Store.  While many of the developers I speak to complain about the backlog for app acceptance, they all wholeheartedly embrace the iPhone platform because “it’s easy.”  While technically closed, Apple’s mobile OS is based on commonly used “open” web technologies (WebKit), so it’s easy for web developers to learn. There are millions of iPhone and iPod Touch users to target, and there’s a great distribution/ monetization strategy in place through iTunes.
 

Critics of “openness” often question the financial viability of a 100% open approach. Take Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer who bashed Google Android:

I don't really understand their strategy. Maybe somebody else does. If I went to my shareholder meeting, my analyst meeting, and said, 'hey, we've just launched a new product that has no revenue model!'...I'm not sure that my investors would take that very well. But that's kind of what Google's telling their investors about Android," he said.

In the short term, he’s right.  In the long term, if Android is successful, Google will be able to monetize through advertising and/or selling aggregate data about user behavior.  But, creating a successful advertising strategy requires millions of eyeballs, and right now, Android is a gamble.

Other critics say things like, “Open is dangerous because it can’t be controlled.”  In reality, “Openness” is a lot like personal freedom: wonderful in many ways but easy to abuse in the wrong hands and without guidelines.  In the US, for example, we are, for the most part, free to do what we like, but there are laws in place to discourage bad behavior and consequences for breaking laws.  I’d much rather live under a democracy than a dictatorship or an anarchy like The Lord of the Flies.  Some “open” technologies provide guidelines for development.  Others don’t.   There’s got to be a happy medium.

Google prides itself on the ‘openness’ of the Android platform and doesn’t provide strict rules for development… Google has a decency policy and reserves the right to pull any app from the Android Market.  However, Google is not acting as a gatekeeper when it comes to making or distributing Android apps. Google’s policy encourages innovation, but it also means that it’s possible for malicious or untested apps with a strong viral appeal to make their way onto dozens and possibly thousands, even millions of users phones before they’re recalled.

Case in point - Today, IntoMobile reported that an app called “MemoryUp” was removed from the Android Market for allegedly erasing the memory cards and address books of its users.  Simon Sage writes:

This may be the unfortunate reality of Android’s open source philosophy - the Market could continue to host faulty or poorly-done applications because everyone has the power to write one. User reviews can be faked, and heavy policing is not only impractical, but counter Android’s vision.

Open mobile policies with limited guidelines can also make users and their contacts more susceptible to mobile viruses, as I mentioned in my recent post. A rampant virus on an open mobile platform could negatively impact both mobile owners and anyone with an email or mobile number listed on an infected mobile phone. A virus on a truly open mobile platform would be particularly nasty because it could simultaneously spread through Internet enabled mobile apps, SMS/MMS, and email.  So, even if it stopped spreading through mobile apps, it could continue to spread through email and SMS/MMS. The most likely phones that would be impacted would be smartphones on wholly open development platforms that provide access to PIM (calendar and address book) data but don’t closely regulate free app content or distribution.

There are clearly a lot of pros/cons on both sides of the open vs. closed mobile debate, and so far, I don't see a clear winner.  My vote is for open development standards combined with guidelines (and consequences) for developers that protect consumers from malicious apps.  I also believe that mobile OEMs and OS developers should be able to differentiate themselves.  Without differentiation, the mobile ecosystem will collapse, and that’s bad for competition and innovation. 

In response to my last post, "Magikplp" asked what I thought might happen with Google in 2009.  I suspect that Google will have a good year in 2009 but not a *great* year.  Google will continue to be a force to reckon with and will remain the leader in most things web, but this will be a year of building new technologies and investing in the future, while navigating a tough economic climate - not necessarily a year for exponential profit growth (though I don't think profits will be bad in 2009).

Google is making a huge investment in Android, which won't pay off in the near future because mobile advertising hasn't taken off yet.  Google doesn't expect to make money on their 30% cut off off apps, once they start allowing paid-apps on the Android Market.  Here's what Eric Chu (Android Mobile Platform Program Manager) said about it in a recent blog post:

Starting in early Q1 [2009], developers will also be able to distribute paid apps in addition to free apps. Developers will get 70% of the revenue from each purchase; the remaining amount goes to carriers and billing settlement fees—Google does not take a percentage. We believe this revenue model creates a fair and positive experience for users, developers, and carriers.

Like many companies, Google has reportedly already had layoffs and reduced the number of consultants they employ.  They've also eliminated several of the premium salsas from their free cafeteria (seriously - I'm laughing while I type this, but I actually heard Google employees complaining about it the other week!).  While there is likely to be a watchful eye on spending, Google has a smart executive team, and I bet they'll keep their eyes open for good technology acquisitions and investments - especially start-ups that compliment Google's technology, but are unable to monetize on their own in a tough economy.

Most of all, in 2009, I think Google (like Microsoft) will be focusing on tying up loose ends and making their different assets work better together... web-based software, mobile, many forms of advertising, behavioral targetting and optimization, LBS, clean tech (google.org), and more.

I took a blogging break for Turkey, so this social media and mobile round-up includes the most interesting news in mobile and social media since November 21:

Apple:

• Apple is changing the App store to show a broader range of top apps in each category and separated free from paid apps.  Hopefully this will discourage developers from arbitrarily lowering prices of their apps to make them turn up closer to the top of the listings. 
  
• Apple gives developers the ability to deliver promo codes for their iPhone apps.
  
• iTunes App store results, 5 months in.
  

AOL:

• Bebo launched “Social Inbox” on December 10.  It “combines e-mail, social networking and media recommendations in one easy-to-use interface. “ 
  

Facebook:

• Facebook is reportedly running A/B tests on its sign-up process. I think this is great. Testing is a very important part of improving customer experience, and more companies should test UI regularly. Here’s more on the test.
  
• Facebook announced the 5 grand prize recipients of its fbFund of $225,000 each: GroupCard, Kontagent, Mousehunt, by HitGrab, WedSnap created the Weddingbook application, and  Wildfire
  
• TechCrunch interviewed Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg here.
  
• Facebook Connect is now generally available.  TechCrunch reports “Now any third party website that wants to pull personal data about visitors from Facebook - and send back activity reports to their news feeds - can do so by first filling out a self-service application.”
  
• Good article from NY Times. Facebook Connect attempts 2 turn around dismal performance of social media ads.
• Oodle will power the Facebook Market (classifieds)
  

FIM:

• MySpace launched its new MySpace Toolbar for Firefox and Internet Explorer.  It enables: auto login, alerts, updates, Myspace Search by Google, quick links and user links from your browser.
  
• MySpace announced DataPortability Project  with new data portability standards.
  
• MySpace launches streaming mobile video.
  

Google:

• Mobile / Android:
• The Open Handset Alliance announced that the following 14 companies joined the Alliance: AKM Semiconductor Inc., ARM, ASUSTek Computer Inc., Atheros Communications, Borqs, Ericsson, Garmin International Inc., Huawei Technologies, Omron Software Co. Ltd, Softbank Mobile Corporation, Sony Ericsson, Teleca AB, Toshiba Corporation and Vodafone. 
  
• “Google's Android Open Handset Alliance Project unveiled the Android Dev Phone 1. The Android Dev Phone 1 is hardware and sim unlocked G1 in black with a special skin aimed at developers.  The Android Dev Phone 1 sells for $399 in 18 international markets. “
  
• The Phandroid blog speculates that Google will soon introduce Ringtones and Wallpapers to the Android Market.
  
• Google advertisers can now “show [their] desktop text and image ads on the iPhone, the T-Mobile G1, and other mobile devices with full (HTML) Internet browsers.”
  
• The Kogan Agora is the latest Android phone. It’s now available for pre-order and will be released Jan 29, 2009.
  
• Here’s an interesting summary of Android Market performance from MediaLets.
• HTC raised G1 sales forecasts for 2008 to 1 million devices.
  
• Chrome:
• Google’s new browser, Chrome, exited beta on December 11.
  
• Gmail:
• Gmail adds to-do list management (“tasks”) to its list of features.
  
• You can now SMS through Gmail’s new task manager. You can activate it here.
  
• Search:
• Google released zeitgeist 2008, a summary of the “big events, memorable moments and emerging trends that captivated us in 2008”.  The fastest rising global search terms? That’s right folks, it’s the ever frightening, “Sarah Palin” at #1 and “Jonas Brothers” at #10.  Obama falls in at #6.  In the UK, Google reports: “From BBC's iPlayer to Facebook to YouTube, many of the top searches in Britain this year have been for our favourite websites. We also see three web-savvy politicians come tops in searches”.  Check out all the stats here.  Very cool stuff.
  
• FriendConnect is now open for all websites.  As TechCrunch reports “Google Friend Connect is OpenSocial’s answer to Facebook Connect. It lets other websites accept a member’s OpenSocial OpenID username and password to log into their sites. More importantly, it also lets websites access users’ social data, which includes friend lists, profile information, feed messages, reviews, ratings and the like.”
  
• YouTube:
• YouTube launched an enhanced abuse and safety page.
  
• YouTube is tightening its standards on content.
  

Microsoft:

• CrunchGear speculates that Microsoft may announce a Zune Phone at CES 2009.
  

Motorola:

• MOTODEV’s Widget Developer Challenge underway. Be one of the first 100 unique submissions received by December 18, 2008, and win a $250 gift card to Amazon.com.  Click here to learn more.
• Motorola introduces Rokr EM35 with WebUI widgets & Windows Media support & music player with virtual surround sound.
  

Nokia:

• Nokia announced the N97, which looks like a very cool phone.
  
• Nokia announces “Point and Find” mobile image recognition technology. It allows users to point their camera phones at poster or billboard and get more information on what’s being advertised on their phones. I’ve seen technology like this before from companies like Pongr and Kooaba.  It’s great to see a big mobile OEM embrace it.  Check out a demo of Point and Find here.
  
• Nokia released a new email platform for Ovi. Check out the beta here.
  

Yahoo:

• Flickr launched a new mobile site, which allows video streaming.

Misc:

• Recent Layoffs:
• CBS Interactive: CBS Interactive laid off workers at LastFM, but rumor has it that CBS Interactive isn’t reporting the extent of layoffs across CBS Interactive.  CBS isn’t confirming the extent of the layoffs, but TechCrunch is speculating: “According to a source inside Cnet, the buzz is that the total number of employees asked to leave today was “275-ish.” A CBS spokesperson wouldn’t confirm that number. So take it as a rough estimate.”
  
•  Microblogging platform, Pownce, closes doors & founders including Digg's Kevin Rose join Six Apart

• Industry News:

• Mobile ad rates drop as inventory increases. Experts say mobile CPMs are ~$15 compared w/ ~$23 earlier this year.
• Blogging platform, Tumblr received $4.5M in series B investment from its Series A investors in a new round of funding this week.  They also announced that they’ll be releasing premium services. 
  
• VC firm, Accel Partners, announced two funds worth $1Billion.
  
• Industry Events:
• LeWeb08 took place in Paris December 9-10.  
• While I couldn’t make it to Paris, I enjoyed watching some of it on UStream.  
• The interview with Marissa Mayer, Google’s Vice President of Search Product, was particularly good.
• In particular, the closing session on the main stage with the Gillmor Gang was entertaining.  I don’t see it up on the Gillmor Gang site yet, but fingers crossed they’ll post it when they’re back from Europe.   
• Seesmic founder and organizer of Le Web, Loic LeMeur apologizes for “organizational issues” at LeWeb08.
  
• Technology announcements:
• Hi5: Announced virtual gifts on December 10.
• Opera: The alpha of the Opera 10 browser is now available for free download.
  
• TechCrunch reports that “Netvibes Founder Building iPhone-Like Operating System For Netbooks” called Joliweb.
  
• TechCrunch reports that UStream is entering the race to dominate the live mobile broadcasting market (other players include Qik, Kyte, and FlixWagon).  See a video and analysis here.
  
• New Start-up, “Give Real” encourages people to forget about giving virtual gifts in favor of giving “real drinks redeemable at any bar or restaurant.”  Check it out here and as an app on Facebook.
• Misc.
• Itsmy released a mobile social networking study of 15,000 active users. Results here.
  
• In her November 21 BoomTown blog Kara Swisher summarized the Astia Awards Dinner, which celebrated venture capital firms that support women-led companies. I’m not a fan of awards dinners so I wouldn’t normally mention one, except that for this one, Venture Capitalist, Tim Draper, who couldn’t make it to the event in person, sent in a very funny video of himself taking off a piece of clothing for every woman-led company he’s invested in.
  
• Vodafone buys European mobile location and navigation services company, Wayfinder.
  
• Sling.com, which, like Hulu, allows you to watch TV shows online, launched in beta.
  

Apple:

• iPhone 2.2 Firmware was released. MobileCrunch’s review is here.  Excerpted summary of the article: “Safari’s address bar/search … tweaked a bit, apps now request a rating upon deletion, over-the-air podcast downloads …, various video and audio quality tweaks, and assorted bug fixes throughout… Google Maps has been upgraded to include Street View and directions for public transit and walking - if you have an iPhone rather than an iPod Touch…According to early reports, 2.2 for the iPod Touch brings everything but the Google Maps upgrade.”

Facebook:

• The SEC gave Facebook permission to stay a private company, while having over 500 shareholders.  This will allow Facebook to continue to issue options and restricted stock to its current and future employees.
• Facebook launched its verified app program, which requires developers to pay $375 to have their app “verified”
  

Google:

• Google Mobile: John Gruber reports that Google seems to be using an undocumented API for the voice search feature in its recently updated Google Mobile iPhone application.  Normally doing this is against the SDK Guidelines. So, the questions are: Did Google get Apple’s permission to use this API? Did Apple not realize that that Google was using an undocumented API, or did they turn a blind eye to the usage. You can read about the saga on  John Gruber’s post here.  You can see the Google video demo of  the Google Mobile update here.
• YouTube: A researcher is claiming that he’s discovered the key to predicting the success of YouTube videos. TechCruch’s summary is very good:  “Crane claims every time a YouTube video turns into a hit, the development takes the form of an “attention spiral”, a geometric pattern that partly follows physical laws. He discovered that a decrease of popularity with certain videos, for example, can be explained through methods usually utilized in modeling the aftershocks of earthquakes.”
  

Motorola:

• Motorola launched the "MOTODEV Widget Developer Challenge" for it’s mobile Linux platform.
  

MySpace:

• MySpace for RIM’s Blackberry is which launched on Nov 12 has apparently been downloaded more than 400,000 times!  You can get it here.
  

Twitter:

• Check out the real-time results of Guy Kawasaki’s ongoing survey that asks people how much they’d be willing to pay for Twitter.  So far, more than 662 people say they’ll be willing to pay $5 or more a month for Twitter. 1,780 say they won’t pay and would rather Twitter go away than start charging.

Yahoo!

• Jerry Yang stepped down as Yahoo!’s CEO, and Yahoo! Is now on the lookout for a new leader.
  
• Yahoo is rumored to still be thinking about buying AOL.
  

Misc:

• Recent Layoffs:
• Strands and Qik lay off 10 % of their staff.
• Palm Inc. A friend reports that over two thirds of the business development and developer technical support teams were affected 
• Industry News:
• Mobile advertising company AdMob’s latest Mobile Metrics Report just came out. You can download it here.  Highlights of the report include: “The iPhone is now the #1 device worldwide in the AdMob Network with 4.1% share of requests in October. Since AdMob launched its ad units for iPhone sites and applications, iPhone requests have increased from 28 million in July to 236 million in October. This month, we break out iPhone requests by country and region.”
• Appterra, a mobile advertising company just closed a $10.5 Million round of financing and announced that former Yahoo! senior executive David Karnstedt joined its board of directors.
• “Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) today announced that Internet advertising revenues reached almost $5.9 billion for the third quarter of 2008, representing an 11 percent increase over the same period in 2007. While double-digit annual growth continues, the quarter-to-quarter curve remains relatively flat compared to recent past performance.”  Read more here.  This is very good news for the technology industry, which largely monetizes through advertising.  I’ve been concerned that since advertising was one of the first industries to decline in the 2000-2001 dot com fall out that the decline in internet advertising between Q4 07 and now may signal challenging times ahead for the monetization of online properties. This study is a re-assuring sign that Internet advertising is on the rise after a brief decline.
• Videoegg extended its online advertising reach to the iPhone.
• Technology announcements:
• Citysearch overhauls mobile and web sites, maximizing on Yelp's bad press. They also went social by integrating with Facebook Connect in this new beta version of Citysearch.
• SnapTell: This is a new, free iPhone application that gets great reviews from TechCrunch: “take a photo of the cover of any CD, DVD, book, or video game, and the application will automatically identify the product and find ratings and pricing information online.“  It just launched on the iPhone.
• Sony adds social networking to the Playstation in the form of its Home virtual world.
• OpenTable released an iPhone app available in the iTunes store.  
• Xobni, an Outlook plug-in that helps you organize email conversations, contacts and attachments just added integrations with Yahoo Mail, Facebook, Skype, and Hoovers.
• According to a new study, 22% of consumers are unlikely to respond to email social marketing. 12% will click on messages on social sites.
  

• Apple
• Apple is now the #2 smartphone manufacturer. Nokia remains #1, RIM is now#3, and Motorola is #4. More here.
  
• The iPhone surpassed the Motorola Razr as the top selling consumer phone.
  
• Facebook
• TechCrunch reports that Facebook violated its own privacy policy to give Microsoft access to user emails: “Microsoft’s Invite2Messenger appears to violate that policy. Messenger users are asked to log in to Facebook, and then the names and email addresses of all that user’s Facebook friends are then sent to Microsoft and displayed in clear text on a page they control (Facebook itself only shows friend’s emails as images to prevent scraping). You check off which friends you want to invite to use Messenger, and then Microsoft sends each of them an email to install the client and become friends with you. Screenshots of the process (with emails removed) are below.“
  
• Facebook launched an app that allows users to vote for their favorite FBFund apps.  There are 25 finalists, five of which will receive $225,000 FBfund grants. Add the app here.
  
• Google
• YouTube launched a “new advertising program that enables all video creators -- from the everyday user to a Fortune 500 advertiser -- to reach people who are interested in their content, products, or services, with relevant videos.” 
  
• Motorola
• Interesting article on the perception of Motorola’s recent announcements regarding changes to the org: “Motorola's Turnaround Plans Meet with Skepticism”
  
• Nokia
• Nokia cut its 4th quarter outlook on handset sales from the 1.26 billion it forecast in October to 1.24 billion handsets. It also forecast a decrease in the global market for fixed and mobile network infrastructure. More here.
  
• Sony Ericsson
• Sony Ericsson ranks highest among customer satisfaction for the 3rd time in a row.
  
• Mobility Today is calling the Sony Ericsson Xperia X1 the “ultimate Windows Mobile phone anyone can ask for”:
  
• Twitter
• Twitter surpassed its 1 Billionth tweet this week.
  

• Misc:
• Recent Layoffs:
• TechCrunch reports 58,709 tech layoffs over the past two and a half months. Check out the TechCrunch Layoff Tracker to see the latest Layoff news.
  
• Technology announcements:
• Loopt:
• Loopt has become more popular than the MySpace and Facebook mobile apps on iPhone.
• Loopt has reportedly hired Allen&Co to represent them in a financing transaction or sale
• To cut costs, Loopt is partnering with a Qualcomm subsidiary, SnapTrack, which provides GPS data for a monthly fee.
  

• OpenSocial celebrates its one-year anniversary. You can see the presentation from the press and developer event here.
  

• Soocial launched its public beta.  They say that they “aim to link all currently disconnected address books to each other. A change in one of these address books will result in a change in all your connected devices.”  It’s getting good reviews. Check it out.
• European events search engine Happener just launched after a year in development. Check it out.
  
• You can now make your own customized guide book at Offbeatguides.com, which was founded by Technorati founder Dave Sifry.
  

I'm starting do to a quick weekly round-up of the Social Media and Mobile news that I find most interesting.  Enjoy

AOL:

•  AOL Journals and AOL Hometown are shutting down (joining Xdrive and BlueString)
  

Apple:    

• Apple announces retroactive improvements to “MobileMe”. The following improvements were silently launched in Sept. : http://support.apple.com/kb/HT3182
•  iPhone users in the US now get free wi-fi at all AT&T hotspots.
  
• Ralph Lauren launched an iPhone app.  I agree with TechCrunch... They're better off focusing their mobile marketing dollars and efforts elsewhere...Like ShoZu. ;-)
  

Fox Interactive Media:

• Rumor has it…According to TechCrunch, MySpace Music's CEO position is going to Courtney Holt, MTV Networks' executive vice president of digital music and media. 
  
• TechCrunch reports that MySpace is getting out of the Netherlands, closing its Amsterdam office and moving Beneluz ops to Berlin. When it’s attempted acquisition of Hyves didn't happen in February, it opened an office in Amsterdam to enter the Dutch market.
  

Facebook:

• Facebook’s lead over MySpace is reportedly widening. The global gap between the two is now 43.2 million visitors.
  
• Rumor has it… Facebook may be looking for more investment earlier than anticipated. TechCrunch reports that the bad economy may be slowing Facebook’s revenue growth, causing Facebook to look for investment in Dubai.
• TechCrunch reports that Facebook Connect will officially launch on Nov 30.
  

Google:

• Mobile text messaging apparently coming soon to Gmail.
  
• Google launched Google Apps Labs, which makes it “easier for business customers and schools using Google Apps to also take advantage of our innovations and ideas that aren't quite ready for prime time. We encourage your organization to experiment with the Google Labs features listed below to improve how you communicate and collaborate.”
  

Motorola:

• Motorola's earnings call..."$3.1 billion, down 31 percent compared to the year-ago quarter. The segment reported an operating loss of $840 million, compared to an operating loss of $248 million in the year-ago quarter. The loss this quarter includes significant charges, primarily related to decisions and plans to consolidate silicon and software platforms and simplify the product portfolio."
• Reportedly cutting 3000 jobs, 2000 in mobile unit.
  

Yahoo!:

• Yahoo! is now open: They are attempting to open their network, unlock social relationshps, and "mesh" Yahoo! expeirneces with other sites.  Developers can learn more here.

Miscellaneous news:

• Rumor has it…
• AOL and Yahoo may be doing due diligence on each other looking towards a possible merger.
• Recent Layoffs
• hi5 (last week)
  
• Technology improvements:
• OpenID:  
• TechCrunch reports: “If you have a Yahoo account, you have an OpenID. If you have a Windows Live account, you will soon have an OpenID. And today, if you have a Google e-mail account, you can also start using your Gmail address as an OpenID”.
  
• Windows Live is now supporting OpenID.
•  LinkedIn launched it’s new App Platform.
  
• Netflix is now available on Tivo in the US
  
• QIK  streaming video recording from the mobile is now available for Blackberry:
  
• SlingMedia’s new portal Sling.com set to launch soon. TechCrunch reports that the launch may be Nov 10.
  
• Twitter: As of the last few weeks, Britney Spears is now on Twitter.
  

Last year, I wrote a post with predictions for mobile in 2007 and beyond, using inCode's  "Top 10 Global Wireless Predictions for 2007" as a starting point.  We're almost 2 months into 2008, and it's the perfect time to re-visit those predictions to see what came true, and make a few more predictions for 2008 and beyond.

Topping both InCode's and my own predictions for 2007 was the mobilization of social networks.  To date, while social networks aren't nearly as mobile as I'd like, they're taking big strides and moving in the right direction.  In October 2007, Dustin Moskovitz (co-founder of Facebook) spoke at CTIA in San Francisco on the importance of mobilizing social applications and announced Facebook's first mobile application (for RIM).  And, in one of the most exciting things to happen since I started blogging, Dustin Moskovitz read my post expressing disappointment about Facebook's mobile announcement and solicited my input on how to improve Facebook's mobile strategy and WAP site.

In other exciting mobile social networking news in 2007, ShoZu (one of my consulting clients), who makes it easy for users to interact with their favorite social networking sites from their phone, was nominated for a TechCrunch Crunchies Award.  And, in early 2008, ShoZu announced that ShoZu will ship on 50 Million Mobile phones in 2008, the number of users downloading the app from non-pre-installed phones is doubling quarterly, and 100,000 users are registering for ShoZu every month!  With stats like that, it's clear that mobile OEMs and Operators are buying into the mobile social networking proposition, and users are embracing mobile social networking in droves.  Mobile social networking on the whole will continue to increase in popularity in 2008, and mobile accessibility will improve dramatically, as mobile browsers and social media apps get better. 

inCode also predicted that in 2007, "Multi-Function Devices [will] Become Cheaper and More Versatile" - including the introduction of video-capable, GPS-enabled, and LBS-capable devices to the masses.  Video-capable devices are definitely here to stay.  GPS-enabled devices haven't saturated the market, but LBS is taking off.  Google Maps recently incorporated LBS via network triangulation, and while triangulation isn't nearly as accurate as GPS, it's still very useful.  It's great to see carriers like AT&T opening up triangulation to allow mobile internet technologies to leverage LBS.

A year ago, I predicted that in 2008, "large mobile operators and OEMs will begin to pre-load devices with social networking-focused applications that incorporate GPS."  It seems that mobile operators are moving in the right direction, based on several new product announcements at the World Mobile Congress in Barcelona earlier this month.  OEMs like Nokia and Sony Eriksson are jumping on the GPS bandwagon in 2008 with innovative handsets with built-in GPS and designs that rival the iPhone.  Once GPS technology is more readily available on slimmer handsets, the influx of GPS-enabled social applications will come.  By 2009, interacting with friends from your mobile phone and locating people near you so that you can interact with them in real life will get easier thanks to new GPS enabled handsets and apps.

Last year, I also predicted: "collaborative and community-based entertainment like YouTube on the go will evolve and continue to be popular.  I also expect that sites that monetize video footage (of, say, news events) that users take on their mobile phones will become increasingly popular....Think sites like: ScoopLive.com, Scoopt.com, and SpyMedia.com."  So far, I've been right on YouTube, but monetization from video is still a long way off.  Check out the lack of traffic on the above sites according to Alexa!:

Given the current economic downturn in the US, I don't suspect we'll see much movement in the paid-for citizen journalism space until 2009.  And, by that point, there will probably be a whole new set of competitors.  More likely,  I suspect we'll see Video AdSense from Google (just released from beta) and similar video ad platforms make their way towards mobile and start picking up momentum towards the end of the year and into 2009 as mobile advertising revs up.

With an increased amount of mobile content becoming available and more ISVs and websites trying to monetize their mobile efforts through advertising, the discoverability of mobile content needs to improve.  So, I'm sticking with my original prediction from 2007 that later in 2008, mobile search and mobile SEO will gain momentum.  Mobile ads will gain some momentum later this year but won't likely take off until 2009.  By that point, there will be a need to track the effectiveness of mobile ads, and by 2009, I suspect we'll see an increase number of mobile analytics vendors like Bango and Mobilytics emerge.  From there, it's only a matter of time before the heavy hitters in website optimization and testing incorporate mobile website testing and optimization tools into their product suites.

It's an exciting time to be in both mobile and web 2.0, and 2008 and 2009 will be exciting years for both industries as convergence moves further away from a dream and towards a reality.

At the end of November, I published a Dear Abby-esque post on Plaxo Pulse.  In it, my friend, Paul emailed me to get my opinion on Plaxo Pulse, and I didn't have many (okay, ANY) positive things to say about it.  So, it was with great amusement that I read Michael Arrington's post on TechCrunch this morning - Plaxo Flubs It. 

I'm all for companies that creative to solve challenges, but not when they infringe on the privacy of others or the terms of use that other companies put in place to protect their users/customers.  I'm continually amazed by how many people and companies (especially in the world of web 2.0) are willing to cast ethics and good sense to the side to benefit themselves in the short term. 

Wouldn't it be great if instead of letting rogue product managers run wild finding ways to benefit their customers to the detriment of innocent bystanders, more web 2.0 execs started standing up for what the internet should be about - making the world a better place?!  As those first Google employees used to say,"Don't be evil."

Today, Verizon reported (gasp) that it is "opening" up its network to any device and any application...that can meet it's “minimal technical standard”.  I'm prepared to swallow my words (see my previous post "Will Verizon Become a More Open Mobile Network for Developers?"), assuming Verizon's standards (to be published in early 2008) are as reasonable as the press release implies:

Any device that meets the minimum technical standard will be activated on the network. Devices will be tested and approved in a $20 million state-of-the-art testing lab which received an additional investment this year to gear up for the anticipated new demand. Any application the customer chooses will be allowed on these devices...

While most Verizon Wireless customers prefer the convenience of full service, the company is listening through today’s announcement to a small but growing number of customers who want another choice without full service.  Both full-service and “bring-your-own” customers will have the advantage of using America’s most reliable network.

I want to believe that the world is becoming a more open and mobile place and that Verizon is championing the effort, and Verizon's release makes it sound like the company is moving in the right direction, but I'll remain cautiously optimistic until I see Verizon's execution.

If the 'minimum technical standard' is reasonable, it will be a huge step forward for the mobile industry and consumers. However, if that standard includes a requirement for handset providers to put bandwidth constraints on third party applications (i.e. purposefully limiting the performance of 3rd party application "bandwidth hogs" like streaming video apps), the network won't be truly "open". *

Here's the part of the Verizon release that triggers my (ahem) skepticism:

Following publication of technical standards, Verizon Wireless will host a conference to explain the standards and get input from the development community on how to achieve the company’s goals for network performance while making it easy for them to deliver devices.

On the one hand, Verizon says the technical standards they're introducing are 'minimal'.  On the other hand, they're going to have to "explain" them to hardware developers in conjunction with their "network performance" goals.  Verizon has always closely guarded its network.  While it's possible that Verizon will throw caution to the wind in the New Year as they announce their new standards and become truly open, it's also possible that they'll establish a not-so-open standard that hardware developers must compromise to meet.

Here's hoping that end result of Verizon's announcement is a truly open network.

*Don't get me wrong - I understand why Verizon (and other carriers) would want to limit bandwidth heavy applications... They suck resources and if used concurrently can negatively impact performance of a fragile or overstressed network.  But, with the amount of money consumers pay for wireless data and calling plans, networks should be investing to ensure robustness.  And, it sounds like Verizon is doing that.