3 posts tagged “itunes”

Here are a handful of my predictions for mobile and social media in 2009, moving into 2010… For the record, I’ve left off everything I know will happen in 2009 and limited this list to things I *think* will happen:

• Smartphones and feature phones will continue to converge in iPhone-esque fashion.  
• Mobile Internet will drive usage of smartphones, and with it, more robust experiments with mobile advertising and payments will begin.  
• Mobile advertising and payments will gain some momentum in 2009 but won’t really take off until 2010 and beyond.
• A few thoughts on Android:
• Android will struggle to gain momentum until there is infrastructure to distribute paid apps and an iTunes-esque web or client-based interface for PC & Mac.  
• Ultimately, Android will do well, but it’s going to take longer than many anticipate.
• Mobile and web convergence will continue heating up…
• Mobile back up and “kill pill” services will gain increased momentum, as those who convert to ‘smarter’ phones start storing more important data on their mobile (i.e. contacts, calendar, email, etc.).  Mobile Me, Dashwire and other services will continue to improve, and new players will enter the market, making it easier for users to access data on their phone from the web and reducing the pain associated with a lost or stolen phone.
• Mobile will become more social.  ShoZu, Xumii, Pixelpipe, PixSense, and others social media gateways are already making a play in this market.  But, in 2009, web-based players (ala FriendFeed) will experiment with mobile.  And, we’ll see acquisitions and consolidation in this space.
• Towards the end of the year or early 2010, I think we’ll start seeing converged development platforms that allow developers to create both web and mobile apps/widgets in fewer steps.  In late 2009-2010, mobile OS providers and OEMs will start looking beyond SMS, MMS, and email and incorporate social messaging tools like Twitter and maybe FriendFeed into basic functionality of phones.  And, mobile address books should become more social, allowing you to input your friends’ social networking details into your address book and interact with them via your chosen medium in 1-2 clicks.
• Both web and mobile development platforms will continue to duke it out for developer attention.  Developers will choose the platforms that provide the easiest-to-use, most robust tools and monetization and distribution options.
• I’m hoping Microsoft pulls a rabbit out of a hat… Perhaps, they will finally make computers chewy like cake, but more likely Windows 7 and the next generation of Windows Mobile (which I bet will be called "Windows Mobile 7") will play better together than previous mobile and PC OSes.
• I don't want to predict a rampant mobile virus, but I think it could happen easily, as mobile-web convergence accelerates: A mobile virus has a high probability of emerging in 2009 (though, I won't go as far to say that one will emerge), targetting PIM data (contacts, calendar, etc.).  This type of virus would negatively impact both mobile owners and anyone with an email or mobile number listed on an infected mobile phone. A virus like this would be particularly nasty because it could simultaneously spread through Internet enabled mobile apps, SMS/MMS, and email. So, even if it stopped spreading through mobile apps, it could continue to spread through email and SMS/MMS. The most likely phones that would be impacted are smartphones on open development platforms like Android that give 3rd party developers access to PIM data but don’t closely regulate free app content or distribution.  The likelihood of this happening will decrease if open mobile OS providers (like Google) implement better checks and balances for apps, though doing so may slow innovation in the 3rd party app space.  The other group of users that could be impacted by a mobile virus are those who back-up their PIM data to an un-proven “server in the sky” provider that gets hacked.
• The mobile app store war will heat up… The success of the iTunes app store has blown other smartphone stores out of the water, and bolstered sales of the iPhone. Microsoft, RIM and others will attempt to join or leapfrog the competition.
• Social media and mobile measurement, monitoring, and monetization tools like Radian6, Bango, Mobclix and others (all of which solve pieces of this puzzle) will improve, converge, and become more robust widely used and accessible. 
  
• Social media and mobile marketing will gain validity as measurement tools improve.
  
• More big brands will embrace mobile and social campaigns rather than running away from them.
• Marketers will be able to target content more appropriately to users based on behavior, location, and handset.
• Developers will be able to more effectively understand consumer behavior and increase app traction.
  
• There will be increased consolidation in the social media aggregation space.  Smaller social networks will die or be acquired into larger networks.  Aggregation sites like FriendFeed will become more popular. Turf wars will escalate with larger social networks taking increased action against smaller aggregation networks that violate terms of their API licenses and encroach on their turf (Facebook's lawsuit against Power.com and action against Google Friend connect were just the start).
  
• Facebook will continue to grow in popularity and eventually find a way to properly monetize its 150,000,000 + users.
  
• Twitter will make a big move in 2009.  Someone smart will acquire Twitter (if the offer is good enough) or Twitter will acquire more of the best companies in its developer community and build out a more robust platform with increased consumer appeal.  Twitter will (hopefully) begin to monetize in 2009.
  
• While “Virtual Gifts” will continue to grow in popularity, “Real Gifts” (like Givereal.com) will gain increased momentum in 2009 and really take off in 2010.  Online retailers will make their real products (books, clothes, etc.) easily giftable via social networks.  You’ll be able to send gifts to your friends/acquaintances without knowing their real address.

I'd love to hear your thoughts on these predictions.  If you're not a vox member, please email your comments to me, and I'll re-post. 

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For those of you that disconnected during Christmas, Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, New Year, etc…  Welcome back. Here’s a summary of the most interesting social media and mobile news I read in the last few weeks:

Apple:

• 1/6/09: At Macworld….
• Apple announced tiered pricing for songs on iTunes that allows record labels to charge higher amounts for more popular songs… Their new pricing scheme, which will launch in April will offer songs at 69 cents, 99 cents, or $1.29.  When I heard this, I couldn’t help but think of the old Taco Bell commercials of the early 1990s… “.59, .79, .99”  I know record labels need to make a buck, but I’m more inclined to pay $1.29 for a taco than I am for a new song on iTunes.
• On a happier note, songs will finally be DRM free and 256 Kbps AAC by the end of Q1. Today, iTunes store has 8 million DRM-free songs. By the end of March, they’ll have 10 million.  
• And, if you’ve got an iPhone 3G, you’ll be able to download songs directly to your iPhone over the 3G network, and the songs will sync between your computer and your phone….Ahhh… Finally!
• In FY 2008, Apple sold 9.7 million Macs, and Mac sales increased at two times the rate of the overall PC market.
• The new version of iPhoto within iLife will have facial recognition software, which allows you to pick photos of a specific friend from your album without a text tag.  And, iPhoto will be Facebook and Flickr compatible!
• 1/5/09: Steve Jobs told the world that his recent rapid weight loss is due to a hormone imbalance and not a return of pancreatic cancer.

Facebook:

• 1/2/09: Facebook sued Brazilian start-up Power.com for trademark and copyright infringement, violation of the computer fraud and abuse act, and unlawful competition.  Facebook’s complain states that Power.com “is offering a product that solicits, stores and uses Facebook login information to access information stored on Facebook computers without authorization and to display Facebook copyrighted material without permission.” You can read the NY Times article that describes the suit here.
  

Microsoft:

• 12/31/08: Proving that the “blue screen of death” is alive and well, Microsoft’s 2006 30GB model Zune experienced a massive failure on the last day of 2008, and users were not amused. The bug appears to have been fixed, though users are still unhappy about it.
  

Twitter:

• 1/5/09: Twitter was hacked over the weekend, and 33 high profile accounts were hijacked. There was also a separate phishing scam through the direct message capability.  You can learn more about it on Twitter’s blog.
  

UIQ:

• 1/5/09: Symbian partner, UIQ filed for bankruptcy.
  

Verizon:

• 1/5/09: BusinessWeek reports that “The $5.9 billion acquisition of cellular carrier Alltel Corp. by Verizon Wireless will close on Jan. 9”.  This will mean that Verizon trumps AT&T as the largest US mobile operator with ~ 78 million subscribers.
  

Xobni:
1/5/09: Xobni (inbox spelled backwards), the company behind a very cool outlook plug-in that turns your email inbox into a social network, announced $7M in Series B funding from new investor Cisco Systems and Xobni’s existing investors.

Layoffs:
1/6/09: Clearspring, which plays in the widget distribution space laid off 20% of its workforce in early December, and their President/COO, Jay Rappaport is leaving.

Misc. Social Media & Mobile News:

• I just learned about Twtpoll, which lets you poll your Twitter followers.  Looks like a great idea if you’re a brand that wants feedback from its community of users.
• 1/1/09: California passed a no-text messaging while driving rule, which became legal on Jan 1. I can’t help but wonder how it can be illegal to text while driving, and yet, it’s perfectly okay to fiddle with your radio, AC, or GPS.  Not that I’m advocating texting while driving. It just seems like an inane law, given the many distracting things you could be doing while driving.
• 1/3/09 The 1.0 version of a Firefox add-on called Power Twitter launched, allowing “search, search scoped to a specific user, status history peeking on mouseover, Facebook status updates, inline YouTube, Flickr, and TwitPic, url expansion, url translation to page titles, and open web update (news feed) mapping.”  It sounds interesting to me and gets good reviews, but I’ve heard a few complaints from people I follow on Twitter, so I’m waiting until the next release.
  
• 12/31: TechCrunch did a great piece on the Top Social Media Sites of 2008, which summarizes data from comScore.  Top Social Media Sites (ranked by unique worldwide visitors November, 2008; comScore):

1. Blogger (222 million)
2. Facebook (200 million)
3. MySpace (126 million)
4. Wordpress (114 million)
5. Windows Live Spaces (87 million)
6. Yahoo Geocities (69 million)
7. Flickr (64 million)
8. hi5 (58 million)
9. Orkut (46 million)
10. Six Apart (46 million)
11. Baidu Space (40 million)
12. Friendster (31 million)
13. 56.com (29 million)
14. Webs.com (24 million)
15. Bebo (24 million)
16. Scribd (23 million)
17. Lycos Tripod (23 million)
18. Tagged (22 million)
19. imeem (22 million)
20. Netlog (21 million)

• 12/31/08: TechCrunch has an interesting article on the rise of Y-Combinator, start-up Scribd.  Scribd allows users to post and share documents online.  TechCrunch reports: “According to the comScore numbers, it has more unique visitors worldwide than imeem and almost as many as Bebo, with 23.5 million visitors in November, 2008. (In the U.S., it had about 4 million visitors).”  And, Scribd grew “218 percent from November, 2007.   Pretty incredible stats for a company that initially only raised $300,000! “
• 12/31/08 The UK loves watching the TV show “Big Brother,” and rumor has it, they may be forced to live a frightening real-life version of it in the future.  The Guardian reports,

“The private sector will be asked to manage and run a communications database that will keep track of everyone's calls, emails, texts and internet use under a key option contained in a consultation paper to be published next month by Jacqui Smith, the home secretary.
A cabinet decision to put the management of the multibillion pound database of all UK communications traffic into private hands would be accompanied by tougher legal safeguards to guarantee against leaks and accidental data losses.”

Even though the report hasn’t yet been published, critics of its rumored contents are speaking out against it including Sir Ken Macdonald, the former director of public prosecutions.

• 12/31/08: Obama’s Change.gov site is getting great use.  According to TechCrunch, “more than 74,031 people have submitted more than 53,369 questions (and counting) for his administration and voted 3,122,015 times to prioritize the questions in a Digg-like fashion.”  You can see the top list of questions here.
  
• 12/30/08: Hitwise reported 3 interesting holiday social media trends in the UK:

1. “Facebook accounts for 1 in 22 UK Internet visits on Christmas Day”
2. "Video site YouTube received more UK Internet traffic than Microsoft Windows Live Mail (Hotmail) for the first time during Christmas week 2008.”
3.  “social networks accounted for 1 in every 10 UK Internet visits during Christmas week.”

• 12/26/08: Amazon.com announced it’s best Christmas season ever with “6.3 million items ordered worldwide on the peak day, Dec. 15, which is a record-breaking 72.9 items per second.”
  
• 12/15/08: BusinessWeek reports that Palm will launch its new Nova OS at CES.  After several layoffs, many ups and downs over the years, I find it amusing that they decided to name it Nova (“no va” means “no go” in Spanish.)  Chevrolet learned how disastrous that name could be when it launched the Chevy Nova years ago.  I’m not sure if this was lost on Palm’s marketing team, if it was an inside joke, or if they knew about it and decided to buck tradition and go with the name anyway. I love Palm, and I’m keeping fingers crossed they find a way to make this work. I think it’ll be tough in to re-gain developers’ trust after several false starts in recent years.
  

I read a really interesting blog today called "The iTunes personality test".  In it, blogger, Rob Horning, offers his thoughts on PsyBlog's report on a recent study (Rentfrow & Gosling, 2006), which paired participants in same sex and opposite sex pairs and asked them to get to know each other over six weeks.  The result of the study indicated that music is one of the most common topics of conversation when people are getting to know each other.  According to PsyBlog article,

"In the first week on average 58% of the pairs discussed music compared to 37% of all the other categories of conversation combined. Other categories included books, movies, TV, football and clothes."

The study went on to compare how much musical tastes can be used as an indicator of personality:

"Participants were asked to judge people's personality solely on their top 10 list of songs. This was compared to participants results on a standard type of personality test measuring the big five personality traits: openness to experience, extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness and emotional stability. Overall the results showed that music preferences were reasonably accurate in conveying aspects of personality."

With the above findings in mind, Horning writes:

"The study led me to wonder, though, if you couldn’t develop an iTunes plug in that would interpret your personality to yourself by analyzing what you are currently playing or have played most often most recently along the lines of how Pandora analyzes music and makes recommendations...It would work like a horoscope, perhaps, making oracular pronoucements about how you are feeling and what you seem to need. When iTunes inevitably becomes a social networking tool, this horoscope could link you to other people who might be especially compatible with you. If music is proxy for personality, it seems a cinch to make networked iTunes libraries into a kind of dating service."

I think Horning's ideas on the future of music in social media are interesting.  One of the big challenges with leveraging music in social media at the moment is the ongoing DRM debate.  However, with Steve Jobs and Bill Gates both criticizing DRM in recent statements, hopefully, one day, this will change. In particular, ending the DRM debate would give social media companies, artists, and record labels the ability to use music to make money in more innovative ways through social media.  I, for one, would love to see Horning's ideas come to fruition and "meet" people on-line whose iPod content most closely mirrors my own.    

For a while now, I've been meaning to read the following book, which talks about the emotion of music:

The author, Daniel J. Levitin, was once a rock music producer and is now a neuroscientist at McGill University in Canada.  Based on the reviews I've read, it sounds like theories explored within This is Your Brain on Music may provide support for Horning's social media ideas about music and the stickiness of popular music social media sites like Pandora.com and Lastfm.com.  Take for example, the following excerpt from Salon.com's review:

Levitin proposes several reasons why music might have been important to humans over the long sweep of history. Making and listening to music is a social activity, and could thus have improved cohesion among members of the species. "Music may have historically served to promote feelings of group togetherness and synchrony" in ancient societies, Levitin writes. Singing around the campfire, way back in the day, "might have been a way to stay awake, to ward off predators, and to develop social coordination and social cooperation within the group."

...

Finally there is that most important thing about music: its connection to love, or, more specifically, to arousal and mating. Unlike birds and whales, humans don't produce musical mating calls. But as social animals, humans need strategies to attract potential mates, and music might have been an important part of the process. "As a tool for activation of specific thoughts, music is not as good as language," Levitin writes. But "as a tool for arousing feelings and emotions, music is better than language." If you want your potential mate to remember you, you serenade her, or at least get Peter Gabriel to do it.

In a great interview on Wired.com, Levitin talks about the power of music as a mood regulator:

Music activates the same parts of the brain and causes the same neurochemical cocktail as a lot of other pleasurable activities like orgasms or eating chocolate -- or if you're a gambler winning a bet or using drugs if you're a drug user. Serotonin and dopamine are both involved....  Most people in Western society use music to regulate moods, whether it's playing something peppy in the morning or something soothing at the end of a hard day, or something that will motivate them to exercise. Joni Mitchell told me that someone once said before there was Prozac, there was her.

Science is just starting to uncover just how powerful a force music is in people's lives.  I look forward to seeing if/ how social media companies and record labels ultimately use scientific research to find ways to work together and better monetize the value they create.